Analysis
Gold price week ahead: the events that will move gold (2–6 November)
After hitting a one-year low, gold faces a week with the US midterms and the jobs report. All key events in German time and what they mean for the gold price.
Gold heads into the new week on the back foot. On Friday, 30 October, the troy ounce closed at around $3,885 – its lowest level in a year and 3.1% down on the week. In euros that is roughly €3,470 per ounce. Trading resumes in the night from Sunday to Monday, and the next five days are packed with events that can move the gold price.
What happened over the weekend
Gold does not trade at the weekend, so news from Saturday and Sunday is priced in all at once when the market reopens – which can open a price gap. The main things to watch:
- Middle East and oil: after a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks on Saudi targets, oil remains expensive (Brent last around $113). Any further escalation, for example involving Iran, could support gold in the short term.
- Interest rates: the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00%, but markets still expect a hike in December. That expectation is what has been weighing on gold, because higher rates make a metal that pays no interest less attractive.
Note: the US switches to winter time on 1 November, so from this week the gap to Germany is back to six hours. All times below are German time (CET).
Key events this week (2–6 November)
| Day | Time (CET) | Event | Impact on gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 16:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (US) | Medium to high |
| Tuesday | All day | US midterm elections | High |
| Tuesday | 16:00 | JOLTS job openings (US) | Medium |
| Wednesday | 14:15 | ADP employment report (US) | Medium |
| Wednesday | 16:00 | ISM Services PMI (US) | Medium to high |
| Thursday | 13:00 | Bank of England rate decision | Medium |
| Thursday | 14:30 | Initial jobless claims (US) | Medium |
| Friday | 14:30 | US jobs report (non-farm payrolls) | Very high |
Several Fed officials are also due to speak during the week. Any hint about the December decision can move the price.
Why these events matter for gold
US midterms on Tuesday
The midterms decide who controls Congress. A surprise or a close, disputed result can unsettle markets, and in those moments investors often look for safe havens. There is also the question of US foreign policy after the vote, including towards Iran. First results are expected overnight into Wednesday, German time.
US jobs report on Friday
The most important data point of the week. Strong hiring makes higher rates more likely, which weighs on gold. A weak report would cool expectations of a December hike and could give gold some room to recover.
ISM surveys on Monday and Wednesday
These show how robust the US economy is. Watch the prices components in particular: if they keep rising, inflation worries grow – and with them the case for more rate hikes.
Levels analysts are watching
After the recent slide, many analysts see support around $3,850, $3,800 and $3,700. On the upside, $3,975 and especially $4,010 are seen as key resistance – the former $4,000 support has turned into a hurdle. A softer jobs report or political turbulence after the vote could trigger a rebound towards those levels; fresh signals of higher rates would add pressure.
What it means for buyers and sellers in Germany
If you buy or sell in euros, the dollar price is only part of the story: moves in EUR/USD change the gold price in euros as well. With this many events, bigger swings are likely. Don't act under time pressure and compare several dealers before you buy or sell. See the long-term trend in our gold price history, and the background in What determines the gold price?. Why gold fell during last week's stock sell-off is explained in our analysis of the tech sell-off.
Note: prices refer to the close on 30 October 2026. Dates and times may change at short notice. This article is not investment advice.